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Laurie Daley
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 8:30 am
reptar wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote:
Pigman wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote:
charlie11 wrote:[quote="Pigman"]I meant all at once. I dont see why we need any of those guys
Name Cronin, play with 9 men, win a premiership. It aint hard.

Sorry I'm with you now, yes why not. Then you could cut your whole squad back to about 18 players. Pity he is leaving.

What happens then if Cronin gets injured? Our depth would really be tested.


what happens if the sun doesnt rise?

An ice age I guess. But you are just being ridiculous now. The odds of the sun not rising are incredibly low. The odds of Cronin getting injured are at least reasonable. I mean the man will be playing 6 positions, that's sure to create wear and tear, particularly if he throws himself a hospital pass or two.


Is he pretending to be McCrone also?[/quote]
He's been playing outside McCrone at Mounties, so I gather he would consider falcons as part of the game plan.
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Laurie Daley
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 8:45 am
Dr Zaius wrote:
Pigman wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote:
charlie11 wrote:
Pigman wrote:I meant all at once. I dont see why we need any of those guys
Name Cronin, play with 9 men, win a premiership. It aint hard.

Sorry I'm with you now, yes why not. Then you could cut your whole squad back to about 18 players. Pity he is leaving.

What happens then if Cronin gets injured? Our depth would really be tested.


what happens if the sun doesnt rise?

An ice age I guess. But you are just being ridiculous now. The odds of the sun not rising are incredibly low. The odds of Cronin getting injured are at least reasonable. I mean the man will be playing 6 positions, that's sure to create wear and tear, particularly if he throws himself a hospital pass or two.


Sorry, are you aware that Cronin is indestructible?
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Laurie Daley
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 9:00 am
Pigman wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote:
Pigman wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote:
charlie11 wrote:[quote="Pigman"]I meant all at once. I dont see why we need any of those guys
Name Cronin, play with 9 men, win a premiership. It aint hard.

Sorry I'm with you now, yes why not. Then you could cut your whole squad back to about 18 players. Pity he is leaving.

What happens then if Cronin gets injured? Our depth would really be tested.


what happens if the sun doesnt rise?

An ice age I guess. But you are just being ridiculous now. The odds of the sun not rising are incredibly low. The odds of Cronin getting injured are at least reasonable. I mean the man will be playing 6 positions, that's sure to create wear and tear, particularly if he throws himself a hospital pass or two.


Sorry, are you aware that Cronin is indestructible?[/quote]
It has been said, that coming from his titanium endoskeleton. I heard rumour that they skimped on a few joints though, replacing the titanium with stainless steel.
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Mal Meninga
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 9:40 am
Dr Zaius wrote:
charlie11 wrote:
Pigman wrote:I meant all at once. I dont see why we need any of those guys
Name Cronin, play with 9 men, win a premiership. It aint hard.

Sorry I'm with you now, yes why not. Then you could cut your whole squad back to about 18 players. Pity he is leaving.

What happens then if Cronin gets injured? Our depth would really be tested.

Pfffft, Cronin would never get injured.
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Ruben Wiki
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 10:04 am
Lenny Leonard wrote:
papabear wrote:Yes a mistackle is a mistackle.

What is worse then a mistackle is a bad read.
Even worse then a bad read is not having your **** in the right spot to make a bad read in the first place.
Or a tackle you make and the guy gets over the try line and scores.

It is just one indicator of defensive quality there are thousands of others. Michael Jordan probably missed more shots then most NBA players ever, yet people dont hold this one statistic against him to try and preted he is a bad basketballer, because those people are not idiots.


He had a FG % of nearly 50% that's massive for basketball

Do you even know what you're talking about?

You are right about FG% being a better indicator and similarly matt has moved from mistackles to percentage missed.

I kept it simple because I wanted to keep the focus on footy not basketball but make the point that mst without context has very limited bearing. But rest assured Lenny, I have played more, watched more and know more about basketball then you.

hold on a second I have been ignoring most of your posts, because you are a douchebag, but you are buc nasty / rodman / lenny.... ahhhhhhh I thought you pissed off and gave up thegh because the raiders sucked and mccrone had been boned giving you nothing left. Now that I know your the same old douche bag and not just another douche bag it all makes sense.
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Ruben Wiki
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 10:16 am
Matt wrote:
papabear wrote:
Matt wrote:
papabear wrote:Are you trolling me matt?


Nope. Stating facts

but you are only stating part of the "facts", without the full picture, all it does is show who is better at the mistackle stat. Not who is a better defender.

Its like deciding who is the best attacking player from the most tackles broken stat.

Now I am sure josh dugan beats out JT on that stat, but JT is by far a better attacking player.

You have to stop tries, you do that from yes making tackles, but also making strong decisions, working as a unit, making good first contact with your tackles, wrapping up the footy to sotp offloads, so on and so forth.

IMO either find more comprehensive stats to support your argument that rapana is the **** edge defender we have, or stop inferring it. Because tbh from watching the games he is probably our best (or maybe waqa).


No. I'm am actually stating facts. I'm just not stating the whole picture, as you have said, and I've explained that. I
said I don't have the right vs left edge stats, so all I can say it what NRL commentators say on a regular basis, and that is our right edge is worse in 2015.
In any of my posts did I say 'better defender' OR did I say 'on missed tackles'??? Pretty sure I said the latter.

As for the rest, that's up to you. Watching games I would have said Waqa is probably our most reliable, but statistically that doesn't stack up. As for Rapana, he is fearless and seems to thrive on contact, BUT, his decision making is not better than any of the rest.

If you wanted to look at tackles made vs tackles missed.
Croker - 420 vs 46 = 9.13 per miss.
Waqa - 225 vs 33 = 6.82 per miss
Eddy - 126 v 36 = 3.6 per miss
Rapana - 145 vs 43 = 3.37 per miss
BJ (ill go with 2015 total rather than just us) - 168 vs 37 = 4.54 per miss
Brenko - 36 vs 6 = 6 per miss (only 2 games though)
Croker wins hands down. Does that make him the best? Rapana is again at the bottom.
I'm sure you will say, 'but wingers don't make many tackles, and are left out to dry often, so of course they have big missed tackle counts'. While that is probably true, again, its not the while story.

So here is what I know.
1. According to the NRL commentators, who use more comprehensive stats, our right edge was worse this yr.
2. Rapana played right side (he did have a couple of games at fullback).
3. Rapana has the highest missed tackle count per game of our outside backs
4. He misses more tackles vs tackles made than any of our outside backs

Sure this isn't the whole story, BUT, so far isn't not going very well at all.


I think it is fair to say that you are going to miss more tackles on the edge then in the middle, they are generally harder to make.

like a layup and a 3 pointer. Its easier to tackle a bloke running straight at you with two other guys then mick Jennings going a hundred miles an hour trying to get around you or inside you.

I also think you see a similar sort of thing when comparing a centre to a winger, which is my fault because I lumped centres and wingers together, just due to there similar requirements of the team .. speed evasiveness etc.

That said now that your stats go a little bit deeper you can see the trend that the wingers eddy and rapana are missing a lot more per tackle then the centres croker and waqa. Thus I don't think it is a true comparison to compare a bloke who is defending one in to the guy defending on the very edge.

That said I acknowledge that statistically in respect of our centres, he is better at waqa at completing the tackles he attempts!

That said considering your statistical analysis is still inferring rapana to be a weak defender when he in fact is not, I don't agree with him being **** canned from the side on the basis of his D. And even now that you have dug a bit deeper on the stats, he is pretty similar to Lee who is playing in a comparable position.

Going back to basketball for a second they have shooting percentages for all different parts of the court, for when you are open to when you are being defended, and for when your shooting off the dribble or the pass. So you can get a much better feel for a player if you look into the stats at that level. but its a lot harder from just a shots made shots attempted level, ie Dwight howard, shaq daddy and heaps of big blokes own FG percentages but were truly bad bad shooters.

Similarly if we had stats showing tackles made when blokes are going for the try, when they have you 2 on 1, inside shoulder and outside shoulder, inside your own 20 etc etc, with a bit more depth then that would show a lot more. For example a guy just keeps running sideways stepping back inside so a few guys miss a few nothing tackles on a guy who loses 5 metres in the end. Those misses mean nothing. The miss when a guy is charging for the try line however is much much worse!!!
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Don Furner
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 11:28 am
That was a little hard to follow Papa, but yes. The more in depth you look it might be a different story. BUT, with what I have, statistically he is worse. My eye would say that Eddy and Rapana are similar defensively, both make good tackles both make bad misses. So, if looking at them, I think they are the same, and the stats say 1 is worse, even if it is marginal, then Im correct, even if its only marginal.

Here is another look at it.
9 of Eddy's 35 misses (I wrote 36 above, I made a typo, its 35) were in his 3 games at centre.
Rapana played 2 games at FB - Draqons & Dogs. Rapana missed 4 tackles in those 2 games (even if he only managed 30mins vs the Dogs). So, 43 comes down to 39.
If you look at it as winger vs winger, its 1.3 vs 2.29 misses per game. That's a difference of basically 1. The tackles made vs missed will go further in Eddy's favour too.

Im sorry, but I cant see any of your extra discussion/ situational footy solving that. You eye might say Rapana is better, but I don't see it on the field or statistically.
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 11:42 am
I really like Eddy, he is our most improved player over 2015 by far.

At the start of the year he looked disinterested and lazy, by the end of it he was really switched on in every play and using his big upper body and ball skills to his advantage.

But, as for my situational stats not improving rapana, well if we ever got them, then we will know, but until then, you will work off the stats you have and I will watch the game and make my observations.

Keep in mind the difference between our starting backline is essentially you like Brenko Lee, I like Rapana.

I would only play B Lee over Rapana in two scenarios:-
- We are **** again next year so wins and losses dont matter may as well try something new and get some development in.
- B Lee dramatically improves his effort in defence. Even worse then being small and steam rolled like a bitch, is being lazy and leaving your team mates out to try.


Before you go statman on these two keep in mind they are defending different spots.
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 11:46 am
Statman:
http://cartoonimpact.com/statman-new-superhero-intel/
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Don Furner
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 12:11 pm
papabear wrote:I really like Eddy, he is our most improved player over 2015 by far.

At the start of the year he looked disinterested and lazy, by the end of it he was really switched on in every play and using his big upper body and ball skills to his advantage.

But, as for my situational stats not improving rapana, well if we ever got them, then we will know, but until then, you will work off the stats you have and I will watch the game and make my observations.

Keep in mind the difference between our starting backline is essentially you like Brenko Lee, I like Rapana.

I would only play B Lee over Rapana in two scenarios:-
- We are **** again next year so wins and losses dont matter may as well try something new and get some development in.
- B Lee dramatically improves his effort in defence. Even worse then being small and steam rolled like a bitch, is being lazy and leaving your team mates out to try.


Before you go statman on these two keep in mind they are defending different spots.


As I said, I agree with you on all that. I just don't think that your situational stuff would make that big a difference. If your lucky it brings them back to level pegging, but cant see it happening.

As for Brenko vs Rapana, I get they are in different positions, but really its BJ vs Brenko and Waqa vs Rapana (maybe vs Eddy if you still look at 2 wingers from 3 players), because that's seemingly the positional battle.
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Don Furner
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 12:12 pm


If you can make the image avatar size ill use it for a while. :thumbsup
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 1:44 pm
It seems hard to judge edge players defensive acumen in rugby league because so much of what happens depends on the middle players dominating tackles (i.e JK somehow falling behind the play every tackle), middle forwards getting back into position and pushing up in defense with 2nd and third efforts (Happy I don't have to see Shillo struggling every fast play the ball).

I'm not sure if the stats tell the entire story here and I would hazard to guess that the right edge are constantly stripped for numbers because they are covering for mistakes in the middle thus blowing out their missed tackle counts.

I don't think Croker is suddenly a good defender, it just makes his job easier with Soliola inside him doing his job and so forth.

Anyway, all I'm saying is we cant make judgments on these guys until we stabilize the middle third. Once we do that the stats will be more reflective on the wide players.
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Mal Meninga
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 1:57 pm
Personally, the first winger I'd pick is Eddie Lee and the first centre is Jarrod Croker. So I guess that's our left shored up.

Honestly, our right I could take or leave either Brenko/BJ with Waqa/Rapana, although at this point in time I'm leaning towards Rapana and BJ.
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Don Furner
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 1:57 pm
Raidernation wrote:It seems hard to judge edge players defensive acumen in rugby league because so much of what happens depends on the middle players dominating tackles (i.e JK somehow falling behind the play every tackle), middle forwards getting back into position and pushing up in defense with 2nd and third efforts (Happy I don't have to see Shillo struggling every fast play the ball).

I'm not sure if the stats tell the entire story here and I would hazard to guess that the right edge are constantly stripped for numbers because they are covering for mistakes in the middle thus blowing out their missed tackle counts.

I don't think Croker is suddenly a good defender, it just makes his job easier with Soliola inside him doing his job and so forth.

Anyway, all I'm saying is we cant make judgments on these guys until we stabilize the middle third. Once we do that the stats will be more reflective on the wide players.


Saying Corker's job is easier because of Soliola is pretty funny, when you think Waqa/ BJ/ Brenko have Papa. Papa is a better defender than Soliola, so probably a poor comparison. I know you said ignore the stats, but here they are anyway.
Soliola = 710 made vs 55 missed. That's 2.89 misses per game, or 12.91 tackles made per miss.
Papa = 700 made vs 38 missed. That's 1.58 misses per game (which is significantly altered by the his last 5 games, 15 misses in the last 5) or 18.42 tackles made per miss.
Now both are 'hit merchants', both are big guys, but Papa is more agile/ better lateral movement than Soliola. Eye test or stats, I have Papa ahead.

I agree that the middle third usually holds the key, and lumbering props don't help. I actually surprised by Boyd though, he moves well for his size. I remember commenting while watching home games that he was making cover tackles at 123-125kgs (depending on which source you look up).
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 2:02 pm
I've been very impressed with Boyd's increased work rate and agility this year.
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Don Furner
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 2:11 pm
zim wrote:I've been very impressed with Boyd's increased work rate and agility this year.


Yep, his numbers this year are damn good. He is one of those guys that seems to have shrugged off the '2nd yr syndrome' and gotten better and better.
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 2:11 pm
Your stats are pointless on outside backs. The circumstances for each tackle and miss are vary far too much to draw any logical conclusion
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 2:12 pm
Firstly I was saying that I don't believe his defense is that much better this year than last, more that because of the quality inside him is better which in tern allows him to cover his defensive zone much better instead of being pulled out of position and looking like a defensive mug.
I'm not sure I agree with Papa lateral defense, this is just my eye test but it looks to me like blake does a huge amount of covering for him. Although I think the middle third stats are far more accurate so you might be right regarding Soliola and Papa.
Ive been hugely impressed by Boyd and his cover defense, Kids a machine!
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 3:23 pm
Raidernation wrote:Firstly I was saying that I don't believe his defense is that much better this year than last, more that because of the quality inside him is better which in tern allows him to cover his defensive zone much better instead of being pulled out of position and looking like a defensive mug.
I'm not sure I agree with Papa lateral defense, this is just my eye test but it looks to me like blake does a huge amount of covering for him. Although I think the middle third stats are far more accurate so you might be right regarding Soliola and Papa.
Ive been hugely impressed by Boyd and his cover defense, Kids a machine!


D these days it a little confusing.
'Traditionally' the line used to be wing, centre, half, backrow/ 2nd row, prop, lock/ hooker, then the reverse.
These days the backrower & props switch. Our backrowers have been defending the middle on the short side, and then edge on the open side.
Often teams will 'hide' a half on the wing or in the centres for 3-4 tackles.

That said, our right edge has been a shambles, and a lack of consistency this yr didn't help.
1st Eddy wasn't good in the centres. He was moved after 3 wks.
Austin rushes up far too often, and arm grabs. He does cover well though.
Waqa is a winger, trying to take a centres defensive load. He did admirably really, but looked out of position there.
BJ & Brenko are the same player, bang or bust defensively.
Building combos on D is as important, if not more, than attack.

As for Soliola vs Papa, for a long time, I thought that Sia was the better defender. However, as the season progressed and I started to see the numbers stack up, it became more apparent that Papa goes unnoticed on D until he hammers someone, coz he just makes them look regulation. I will also say that a fair percentage of Sia's misses are him trying to line people up early in the count, a bit like Red's misses last yr.
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Don Furner
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 3:25 pm
Green eyed Mick wrote:Your stats are pointless on outside backs. The circumstances for each tackle and miss are vary far too much to draw any logical conclusion


Yes it varies, and as I discussed at length with Papa, situations might change the story, BUT 'no logical conclusion' is a stretch.
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 3:55 pm
Matt wrote:
Raidernation wrote:Firstly I was saying that I don't believe his defense is that much better this year than last, more that because of the quality inside him is better which in tern allows him to cover his defensive zone much better instead of being pulled out of position and looking like a defensive mug.
I'm not sure I agree with Papa lateral defense, this is just my eye test but it looks to me like blake does a huge amount of covering for him. Although I think the middle third stats are far more accurate so you might be right regarding Soliola and Papa.
Ive been hugely impressed by Boyd and his cover defense, Kids a machine!


D these days it a little confusing.
'Traditionally' the line used to be wing, centre, half, backrow/ 2nd row, prop, lock/ hooker, then the reverse.
These days the backrower & props switch. Our backrowers have been defending the middle on the short side, and then edge on the open side.
Often teams will 'hide' a half on the wing or in the centres for 3-4 tackles.

That said, our right edge has been a shambles, and a lack of consistency this yr didn't help.
1st Eddy wasn't good in the centres. He was moved after 3 wks.
Austin rushes up far too often, and arm grabs. He does cover well though.
Waqa is a winger, trying to take a centres defensive load. He did admirably really, but looked out of position there.
BJ & Brenko are the same player, bang or bust defensively.
Building combos on D is as important, if not more, than attack.

As for Soliola vs Papa, for a long time, I thought that Sia was the better defender. However, as the season progressed and I started to see the numbers stack up, it became more apparent that Papa goes unnoticed on D until he hammers someone, coz he just makes them look regulation. I will also say that a fair percentage of Sia's misses are him trying to line people up early in the count, a bit like Red's misses last yr.


Fair point Matt. The situations Ive noticed paps on defence is either smashing someone or seeing blake sit in tight to his right shoulder than trying to make up the difference through his speed on the outside. Looked very much like he didn't trust Paps to make up space laterally.
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 5:36 pm
Seiffert82 wrote:
Mullins_y2k wrote:To make this easier lets just drop the whole Brenko idea. All the others are ahead of him, so that makes things more straight forward.

I agree that Whighton, Croker and E. Lee and locked in, so It comes down to Rapana or BJ for the last spot.... It's a really hard choice! I love Rapana, but I think BJ has a little more improvement in him... I hate to say it but I think I'm, leaning toward starting BJ and having Rapana as a high quality back up. He'll probably still end up in the starting line up for 10 games due to injury.

You have Wighton at fullback yeah? Pretty sure you've got us playing with three 3/4's there Y2KM.


Sorry, I mean I'd like to see

1. Wighton
2. Waqa
3. Croker
4. BJ
5. Lee
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PostPosted: September 9, 2015, 8:59 pm
We either find a spot for Brenko in first grade next year or we wave him goodbye.

I'm not prepared to wave him goodbye.

1. Jackie Boi
2. Edrick
3. Joey
4. Brenko
5. Croker

Waqa to play whenever his knee injury permits (i.e. when one of the above is unavailable or needs a rest). Rapana & Hawkins next on the depth chart.
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PostPosted: September 10, 2015, 8:31 am
Sleek the Elite wrote:We either find a spot for Brenko in first grade next year or we wave him goodbye.

I'm not prepared to wave him goodbye.

1. Jackie Boi
2. Edrick
3. Joey
4. Brenko
5. Croker

Waqa to play whenever his knee injury permits (i.e. when one of the above is unavailable or needs a rest). Rapana & Hawkins next on the depth chart.


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