Are the Canberra Raiders disadvantaged by the turnarounds?

 
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Ruben Wiki
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 6:12 pm
I would like to see a stat working out how many extra days a year the Broncos have to recover and prepare compared to their opposition for the week.

Eg this week is +3


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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 6:19 pm
Rick wrote:I would like to see a stat working out how many extra days a year the Broncos have to recover and prepare compared to their opposition for the week.

Eg this week is +3


I think they are +1 for each of the next 3 rounds
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 7:01 pm
Raidersfan wrote:
Rick wrote:I would like to see a stat working out how many extra days a year the Broncos have to recover and prepare compared to their opposition for the week.

Eg this week is +3


I think they are +1 for each of the next 3 rounds


im working on it as we speak boys. Hold tight
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 7:02 pm
+7 after 6 rounds then I got bored
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 7:38 pm
Pigman wrote:
Raidersfan wrote:
Rick wrote:I would like to see a stat working out how many extra days a year the Broncos have to recover and prepare compared to their opposition for the week.

Eg this week is +3


I think they are +1 for each of the next 3 rounds


im working on it as we speak boys. Hold tight
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Laurie Daley
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 7:40 pm
This more complicated than I first thought
The quick is dirty is VERY interesting and probably how the NRL justifies this

But the next step is hard
I'll try and have it up sometime tomorrow
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 7:45 pm
Byes would throw a bit of a spanner in the works for this. Interested to see the results though


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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 7:55 pm
Pigman wrote:This more complicated than I first thought
The quick is dirty is VERY interesting and probably how the NRL justifies this

But the next step is hard
I'll try and have it up sometime tomorrow



Cool, look forward to seeing the results.


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Don Furner
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 8:12 pm
Korbin Sims says Canberra have been disadvantaged by a five-day turnaround for clash with Brisbane

BRONCOS prop Korbin Sims says Canberra have been disadvantaged by a five-day turnaround for Friday’s clash with Brisbane at Lang Park.

“I think it would be a bit of an advantage for us to have a full two days rest and being able to get over a bit of soreness maybe,’’ Sims said.

Read more: http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/nrl ... b35f9a0577

Raiders to face short NRL turnaround test: http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017 ... round-test
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 8:17 pm
Pigman wrote:This more complicated than I first thought
The quick is dirty is VERY interesting and probably how the NRL justifies this

But the next step is hard
I'll try and have it up sometime tomorrow


At a glance earlier I could only see games where the donkeys had the same number of days to prepare as their opposition but byes are a bit different.

There's also a big advantage to playing on the same day most weeks in terms of consistency of preparation.

If you factor in travel as well it could get pretty complicated. Very different having a 5 day turnaround between 2 home games and 2 games on the road.
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 8:25 pm
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So this is pretty self explanatory.
First column is opposition, second column is total days between playing that opposition, third column is average differential days


So on average teams playing the eels have 6.36 days of preparation between days, where as the dragons have 8.15 days

We rank 3rd last


That's for 2017 only, based on the scheduling dates we have at this point in time (up to round 19)
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 8:27 pm
Pigman wrote:Image


So this is pretty self explanatory.
First column is opposition, second column is total days between playing that opposition, third column is average differential days


So on average teams playing the eels have 6.36 days of preparation between days, where as the dragons have 8.15 days

We rank 3rd last


That's for 2017 only, based on the scheduling dates we have at this point in time (up to round 19)

It's not surprising to see which teams are in the top 4


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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 8:33 pm
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And this is how it's justified


Quick and dirty shows the ave difference between games for each team is almost identical. Parity.

But the difference when accounting for opponent tells a different story
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Don Furner
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 8:38 pm
When you put it like that... that's outrageous!
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 8:38 pm
One day I'll track it over the course of 5-6 seasons and see if that evens out or the disparity grows larger

We probably know the answer there though haha
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Don Furner
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 8:41 pm
I think we know already...
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Ruben Wiki
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 8:48 pm
Pigman wrote:Image

And this is how it's justified


Quick and dirty shows the ave difference between games for each team is almost identical. Parity.

But the difference when accounting for opponent tells a different story


This stat can't vary because, well how would it? Teams can't drift away across the week. First game is in round one. Last game is in round 26. The total days summed across the season can only vary a few days based on where your game is in the first and last round!
Last edited by gangrenous on March 20, 2017, 8:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 8:48 pm
Fox League had their stats guy do a number on who had the best and worst draws of 2017 factoring in a number of variables such as days between matches and quality of opposition, and Broncos were 4th worst
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 8:49 pm
Ok but did you take into account the starting time .. is that why there are multiple decimal points .. JJ
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 8:51 pm
gangrenous wrote:
Pigman wrote:Image

And this is how it's justified


Quick and dirty shows the ave difference between games for each team is almost identical. Parity.

But the difference when accounting for opponent tells a different story


This stat can't vary because, well how would it? Teams can't drift away across the week. First game is in round one. Last game is in round 26. The total days summed across the season can only vary a few days based on where your game is in the first and last round!


Loving your statistical work Piggy
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Ruben Wiki
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 8:52 pm
In his defence, the first bit of statistical work is great and much appreciated.

Plus, this result verifies he's doing it right
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 9:05 pm
greeneyed wrote:Korbin Sims says Canberra have been disadvantaged by a five-day turnaround for clash with Brisbane

BRONCOS prop Korbin Sims says Canberra have been disadvantaged by a five-day turnaround for Friday’s clash with Brisbane at Lang Park.

“I think it would be a bit of an advantage for us to have a full two days rest and being able to get over a bit of soreness maybe,’’ Sims said.

Read more: http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/nrl ... b35f9a0577

Raiders to face short NRL turnaround test: http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017 ... round-test

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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 9:07 pm
gangrenous wrote:In his defence, the first bit of statistical work is great and much appreciated.

Plus, this result verifies he's doing it right


The second one was a very quick and dirty and it didn't look like it added up. Your explanation now puts it into proper perspective

That's why I delved deeper and did the first post
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Ruben Wiki
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 9:10 pm
greeneyed wrote:
gangrenous wrote:In his defence, the first bit of statistical work is great and much appreciated.

Plus, this result verifies he's doing it right


Now I'm confused... are you saying the Raiders don't face oppositions which have 8 days on average to prepare... and the Broncos face oppositions with 6 days on average to prepare?


No. That's true assuming pigman's done his sums right.

What I'm saying is that a stat that is an average time between games for a single team will necessarily be roughly the same number across a season.
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 9:14 pm
gangrenous wrote:
greeneyed wrote:
gangrenous wrote:In his defence, the first bit of statistical work is great and much appreciated.

Plus, this result verifies he's doing it right


Now I'm confused... are you saying the Raiders don't face oppositions which have 8 days on average to prepare... and the Broncos face oppositions with 6 days on average to prepare?


No. That's true assuming pigman's done his sums right.

What I'm saying is that a stat that is an average time between games for a single team will necessarily be roughly the same number across a season.


He's 100% right
I didn't really think about that in the right way, as said, the closeness of that second post is explained perfectly when considering this

The first post is sound.
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PostPosted: March 20, 2017, 11:10 pm
Loving the stats work but that was not what I was getting at.

The Broncos play every Friday (almost) so the only time week to week where they will play someone who has had a longer turn around is when they play the team who played the Thursday.

I'll put together what I was getting at tomorrow.


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PostPosted: March 21, 2017, 5:51 am
I think when determining how tough a draw teams had Fox factored in how many teams from last years top 4, top 8, etc each team played and the Broncos had all of last years top 4 twice.

It's not the strongest indicator given how much the ladder changes each year. You can really only determine that at the end of the season.

It will be interesting to see how much this changes next year when the NRL take control of the draw. Ideally they would be aiming for an equitable draw but I'm not holding my breath.

What piggles stats point out is that the more games you play on a Thursday or Friday the bigger the advantage over you opposition the following weeks.
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PostPosted: March 21, 2017, 5:51 am
Rick wrote:Loving the stats work but that was not what I was getting at.

The Broncos play every Friday (almost) so the only time week to week where they will play someone who has had a longer turn around is when they play the team who played the Thursday.

I'll put together what I was getting at tomorrow.


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It's not exactly what you asked for. But it's correlated. 140 - *score in pigman table* should give you the sum of how many days extra prep a team has across the season.
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PostPosted: March 21, 2017, 6:21 am
Not quite gangers, over 20 rounds 140 should be about par, depending on how the byes have been handled. Lower numbers indicate playing teams with a shorter turnaround than you.

That's if I'm reading it right.
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PostPosted: March 21, 2017, 7:12 am
pickles wrote:Not quite gangers, over 20 rounds 140 should be about par, depending on how the byes have been handled. Lower numbers indicate playing teams with a shorter turnaround than you.

That's if I'm reading it right.


I think you might be looking at pigman's second table. I should clarify that I meant subtract the number from the first table he posted which summed the turnaround times for opponents.

You are right that byes will skew things a bit, depends how pigman handled them. I probably would separate out the rounds involving byes so you can see whether a team's number is a legitimate consistent advantage, or they are artificially inflated by playing teams who happen to have come straight from a bye a couple of times which adds about a week to their total.
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PostPosted: March 21, 2017, 7:24 am
Pigman wrote:
And this is how it's justified


Quick and dirty shows the ave difference between games for each team is almost identical. Parity.

But the difference when accounting for opponent tells a different story

That is so meaningless. There's a difference between all the teams of 4 days due to the day of the week they have their Rd1 game, and the day of the week they have their Rd26 game..
EDIT: it's been pointed out
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PostPosted: March 21, 2017, 7:46 am
Pigman wrote:
gangrenous wrote:
greeneyed wrote:
gangrenous wrote:In his defence, the first bit of statistical work is great and much appreciated.

Plus, this result verifies he's doing it right


Now I'm confused... are you saying the Raiders don't face oppositions which have 8 days on average to prepare... and the Broncos face oppositions with 6 days on average to prepare?


No. That's true assuming pigman's done his sums right.

What I'm saying is that a stat that is an average time between games for a single team will necessarily be roughly the same number across a season.


He's 100% right
I didn't really think about that in the right way, as said, the closeness of that second post is explained perfectly when considering this

The first post is sound.

From your data, are you able to get the times a team plays another where they have longer/shorter prep than their opposition by day?
Example below would total the amount of times they have a certain amount difference in Prep time against their opposition for the week.
Days Prep against Opposition; -3, -2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3
Broncos
Raiders
Bulldogs
ect..

I'm sure this would be extremely difficult to get on excel, but i think it would be the most realistic to show any advantages and disadvantages.
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PostPosted: March 21, 2017, 8:08 am
gangrenous wrote:
pickles wrote:Not quite gangers, over 20 rounds 140 should be about par, depending on how the byes have been handled. Lower numbers indicate playing teams with a shorter turnaround than you.

That's if I'm reading it right.


I think you might be looking at pigman's second table. I should clarify that I meant subtract the number from the first table he posted which summed the turnaround times for opponents.

You are right that byes will skew things a bit, depends how pigman handled them. I probably would separate out the rounds involving byes so you can see whether a team's number is a legitimate consistent advantage, or they are artificially inflated by playing teams who happen to have come straight from a bye a couple of times which adds about a week to their total.



So a few things. I've looked at it again this morning to confirm the beers didnt hinder my logic. And as it turns out, they did! But only a little bit.

1. The byes do complicate things and the way i dealt with them was simple. I left them in. If a team is routinely coming up against teams off the bye, that's a disadvantage and should be included. There is about 3 bye weeks.

2. There was a small calc error. When looking at the average turn around time, i had 20 rounds of data, so just did a simple total days /19 (19 because without the dates for round 21, you cant calc the turn around for that forward round)... of course i forgot the factor in the 2 byes for each team, so it should be total days / 17

3. In the results, it's again based on Opposition. So when reading the table you should read it as if:
"Teams playing the Broncos have 133 days preparation, av. 7.8 days per week. The Broncos get 3 teams off 5 day turn arounds, 1 team with 7-10 day turn around, and 4 teams with 10+ day turn around"

So where does it all land?

This is a screen cap of how my data set looks (logic is pretty straight forward)
Image

And here are the results:
Image


Havent really thought much about what this says, or drawn any conclusions from it... and to be fair i dont think you really can until you did it across 4-5 seasons to see if there are trends. But that's the data. Have at it
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PostPosted: March 21, 2017, 8:11 am
Beejay wrote:From your data, are you able to get the times a team plays another where they have longer/shorter prep than their opposition by day?
Example below would total the amount of times they have a certain amount difference in Prep time against their opposition for the week.
Days Prep against Opposition; -3, -2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3
Broncos
Raiders
Bulldogs
ect..

I'm sure this would be extremely difficult to get on excel, but i think it would be the most realistic to show any advantages and disadvantages.


Could definitely do it, it's a matter of how to do it and when i've got the time and motivation :lol:
I'll have a think about it today and maybe look at it tonight

(GE, might be worth moving all this into it's own thread?)
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Laurie Daley
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PostPosted: March 21, 2017, 8:40 am
Their only 5 day turn around is into playing the knights :lol:
Try and tell me that's not methodically thought out.


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